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AUSTIN, Texas — A slow-moving area of low pressure will increase rain chances Tuesday and allow for a chance of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall for Wednesday.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through the day Tuesday and especially late Tuesday night.
Storms will begin to move through the Hill Country west of Austin in the morning hours of Wednesday.
Rain chances will increase throughout the day on Wednesday, but the heaviest activity around the Austin metro and Interstate 35 corridor is expected in the afternoon and evening hours.
By dinnertime and afterward, the storm threat is expected to shift toward communities east of the Austin metro and I-35 corridor.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of our area under a “Slight Risk,” which is a two out of five on the severe-threat scale.
Storms that do move into Central Texas have the potential for damaging winds above 60 mph and hail larger than the size of a quarter. The tornado risk at this point remains low.
Along with the threat of strong to severe storms, heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding. Early projections show the potential for one to three inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible.
One thing we’re going to watch closely this week is lake levels.
Lake Travis is at 100% and Lake Buchanan is at operational full. Unlike Travis, Buchanan does not have a flood pool, so when it’s at 100%, it’s full. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) has an agreement with FEMA to keep Lake Buchanan at or below 1,018 feet mean sea level during the wettest parts of the year.
The bottom line is that if heavy rainfall falls upstream of Lake Buchanan along the Colorado River, as some models are suggesting, there would be a possibility of dam operations later this week.