Some flooding possible as periods of heavy rain continue

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Surface map this afternoon shows area of high pressure off the New England coast. Area of low
pressure across the Tennessee Valley with stalled boundary across the viewing area. This stalled
front will remain across the area through the overnight and serve as the focal point for showers
and thunderstorms. Moisture will overrun this boundary and any disturbances aloft will help to
intensify any showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water values between 2.0-2.4 inches
and a weak steering flow, localized flooding does remain a concern.
For tomorrow an upper-level feature moving across the Midwest will finally push the system across
the Tennessee Valley off to the east. A warm, moist airmass will remain in place tomorrow. There
will be a cold front associated with the the feature moving through the Midwest. This front will
push through the Triangle late tomorrow night. Ahead of this front, showers and thunderstorms
will develop. Once again tomorrow there is a risk for localized flooding. That threat will continue
into tomorrow night until the front moves through the region.
The trend has been faster with the front through the region so for Tuesday we will cover for a
morning shower especially for the eastern part of the viewing area. As some drier air filters into
the region clouds will break for some afternoon sunshine.
The dry weather will be short-lived; however, as moisture will quickly return northward Wednesday
in response to a deep upper-level trough progged to dig south over the Mississippi Valley. With an
easterly flow in place this will keep temperatures below normal for this time of the year.
This system lifts northward on Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west with a
system moving through the Ohio Valley. Another day of showers and thunderstorms across the
region. High pressure builds in behind the front ushering in a drier more stable airmass for the end
of the week.

Stay dry!
Steve Stewart

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