Tracking the tropics: Hurricane hunters to fly into developing Gulf of Mexico system Wednesday

HOUSTON – The KPRC 2 Severe Weather Team is watching an area of low pressure that has slowly slid into the Gulf of Mexico this week, which will likely develop into a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Hurricane hunters are expected to fly into the system Wednesday, which will provide more information about the location of the storm and possible organization. That information will help create a more accurate forecast.

Here’s a closer look at what that could mean for the Houston region.

What is it?

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure that is developing offshore along the Florida Gulf Coast. There is a 90% chance of development into a tropical depression or higher over the next five days with a 90% chance over the next 48 hours.

What we know

– Heavy rain is expected along the Gulf coast Thursday into the weekend but the hardest hit areas are unknown and dependent upon the development and track of the potential tropical system.

– The majority of computer models are favoring the development of a tropical storm with landfall somewhere in Louisiana on Saturday evening. There are still a few computer models that feature a track moving the system into Texas.  A full blown hurricane is still possible.

– Southeast Texas could see the following:

1. Direct impact from a tropical system this weekend with heavy rain, flooding and strong winds.

2. A total miss! All the weather stays to our east, leaving Southeast Texas high and dry.

– There is much uncertainty in the forecast and changes to the forecast are still possible. With the hurricane hunters flying the system Wednesday, there will be more answers and clarity to the forecast Wednesday night.

– Although the current forecast is cautiously optimistic for Southeast Texas, it is important to make preparations over the next two days. The system will form quickly and there will be limited time to prepare if the forecast changes and more impacts are expected for Southeast Texas

What we don’t know

– The exact location, intensity or track of this potential system is unknown. Right now, there is no area of circulation to track in the Gulf of Mexico. More answers will be available when this occurs by Wednesday.

– There is still disagreement among the tropical weather models as to where this system will move. Some have it moving farther west, closer to Texas, while others favor a landfall into Louisiana. Although the majority of computer models have the system staying to the east there are still models that include a Texas landfall and many models are still wagging paths east and west.

The bottom line

– We will continue to monitor any changes in the weather models.

– As always, it is important to have a hurricane plan ready to go living in Southeast Texas. For more information on how to be prepared, visit the Hurricane Headquarters section at Click2Houston.com/hurricane.

– Now is a good time to download our Hurricane Tracker app. It will give you real-time updates if a system develops in the Gulf.

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