Texas 'not out of the woods': Forecast cone predicts possible hurricane landfall on Louisiana border

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A tropical depression expected to take shape in the Gulf later today or Thursday could make landfall at the Louisiana/Texas border as a hurricane overnight Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm currently has a substantial 90 percent chance of forming into a cyclone in the next 48 hours, according to the National Weather Service. The National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will turn into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, and into a named storm Thursday evening.

While there is still much uncertainty around the broad low pressure system in the northern Gulf, meteorologists say forecast models have become more consistent with landfall near the south-central Louisiana coast. That forecast can change at any moment, and there’s still a small chance the storm could crawl further west toward the Texas coast, the weather service said.

“We are not out of the woods,” the weather service said, adding that recon flights are expected to investigate the system this afternoon.

“Now is a good time to take a look at your hurricane preparedness plans, and be ready to implement them over the next couple days if a system does indeed form and threaten the upper TX coast.”

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Whatever evolves in the Gulf over the next couple of days will likely make landfall Saturday in the form of a tropical storm or a hurricane, the weather service said.

The system could produce hurricane force winds across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and the upper Texas coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. It also has the potential to drop heavy rainfall from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle.

Julian Gill is a digital reporter in Houston. Read him on our breaking news site, Chron.com, and on our subscriber site, houstonchronicle.com. | julian.gill@chron.com | NEWS WHEN YOU NEED IT: Text CHRON to 77453 to receive breaking news alerts by text message | Sign up for breaking news alerts delivered to your email here.