Hurricane Dorian makes its turn north, heading toward the Carolinas as it batters Bahamas

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CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Hurricane Dorian is finally moving northwestward but is growing in size, the National Weather Center reports.

The powerful storm was parked over the Bahamas for over 24 hours before starting to crawl toward the northwest.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Dorian is now moving northwest at 2 mph. Forecasters expect Dorian to begin its northward turn Tuesday with the storm making its way toward the United States Atlantic coast by Wednesday. Hurricane Dorian is expected to reach the coast of South Carolina late Wednesday into Thursday.

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, maximum winds from Dorian are sustained at 110 mph with higher gusts. According to the National Hurricane Center, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend about 150 miles from Dorian’s center.

The NHC said wind gusts of tropical storm force are now occurring along the Treasure Coast of Florida.

First Warn chief meteorologist Brad Panovich says the biggest concerns for the Carolinas will be along the coast with the combination of heavy rain, wind and storm surge. Panovich said there is a growing consensus among computer models tracking where Dorian will head next.

“Forecast models are so tightly clustered it’s insane,” Panovich said. “I’m starting to worry about eastern North Carolina, that’s where the concern comes in because it’s just too close to call. We could see a landfall in North Carolina.”

Here’s the latest on Hurrcane Dorian

As of the 11 a.m. ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center

LOCATION: ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND, ABOUT 105 MILES EAST OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 MPH
MOVEMENT: NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH

Panovich says confidence in the models means forecasters can be more focused on the impacts when the storm does eventually reach the Carolina coast. Right now, Panovich says there’s pretty much “zero chance” of hurricane conditions west of Interstate 95.

“Not a single piece of data shows that,” Panovich explained. “Could it all be wrong? Sure. But it would be the first time ever that every piece of guidance was wrong in the short term. There’s too much confidence in the forecast, and Dorian would have to shift hundreds of miles west, not 20-50 miles.”

The high risk along the coast could result in 4-7 feet of storm surge, up to 10 inches of rain and 50-75 mph winds as the storm churns north.

There is some good news for those inland, as Panovich says Dorian won’t be a major wind event. The impacts will be spread further out, but the highest impact will be on the immediate coast.

Panovich says the storm will cause sound-side flooding when it reaches the Outer Banks and affect areas that were devastated by Hurricane Florence, such as New Bern and Havelock.

TIMING

Panovich says Dorian will reach Hilton Head around 9 a.m. Wednesday with gusting winds. The storm will move north up the coast and reach Myrtle Beach by Thursday night into Friday. Dorian is expected to reach the Outer Banks Friday morning, with a possible landfall coming near Hatteras as some of the models start to disagree on the storm’s exact track.

Sunday evening, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster issued mandatory evacuations for people living along the coastline of South Carolina, as Hurricane Dorian is expected to affect the state by midweek. State troopers began the reversal of all lanes on I-26 out of Charleston Monday morning with evacuations taking effect at 12 p.m.

“Water, water, water is our concern,” said Panovich, urging anyone told to evacuate to listen. “You run from the water, you hide from the wind.”

North Carolina issued a state of emergency ahead of potential impacts from Hurricane Dorian. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster also declared a state of emergency because of the threat of Hurricane Dorian.

Later on Saturday, the city of Charleston declared a state of emergency as well, to ensure the city is fully prepared for emergency operations. The Municipal Emergency Operations Center will be activated Sunday at 8 a.m. and will remain open as needed throughout the storm.

According to the National Weather Service, there is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina during the middle of the week.

The National Hurricane Center said slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations in intensity could occur over the next couple of days. Nevertheless, Dorian is expected to stay a powerful hurricane over the next few days, according to the NHC.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:
Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC
North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC
Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for

North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for

Lake Okeechobee

NHC says Dorian is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches, for the Coastal Carolinas.

“Residents in these areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian’s center,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

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Here’s the latest on Hurrcane Dorian

TIMING

WATCHES AND WARNINGS: