8 a.m. update: Hurricane Dorian to impact South Carolina coast by tonight

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CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Millions of people are boarding up and evacuating as Hurricane Dorian continues to move northwest toward the Carolina coast Wednesday morning. 

According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of Dorian, which is now a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, will move near the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. Forecasters expect the Carolinas to experience tropical storm conditions Wednesday before the center of the storm reaches the area. 

As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Dorian is still moving along the northeast coast of Florida. Forecasters expect the storm to turn toward the north this evening as it closes in on the Carolina coast. The NOAA reported sustained winds of 46 mph in St. Augustine, Florida with gusts of 59 mph. 

The powerful storm was parked over the Bahamas for over 24 hours before starting to crawl toward the northwest. Dorian is expected to stay offshore as it moves along the Florida coast. The storm is “lashing the east coast of Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm is still packing sustained of 105 mph with higher gusts. According to the National Hurricane Center, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend about 175 miles from Dorian’s center.

First Warn chief meteorologist Brad Panovich says the biggest concerns for the Carolinas will be along the coast with the combination of heavy rain, wind and storm surge. First Warn Forecaster Larry Sprinkle said the most dangerous part of a storm in the storm surge. 

Panovich said there is a growing consensus among computer models tracking where Dorian will head next. 

“Forecast models are so tightly clustered it’s insane,” Panovich said. “I’m starting to worry about eastern North Carolina, that’s where the concern comes in because it’s just too close to call. We could see a landfall in North Carolina.”

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Hurricane Dorian latest conditions

As of the 8 a.m. ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center

LOCATION: ABOUT 95 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 MPH 

MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH

Panovich says confidence in the models means forecasters can be more focused on the impacts when the storm does eventually reach the Carolina coast. 

The high risk along the coast could result in 5-10 feet of storm surge, 10-15 inches of rain and 50-75 mph winds as the storm churns north. 

There is some good news for those inland, as Panovich says Dorian won’t be a major wind event. The impacts will be spread further out, but the highest impact will be on the immediate coast. 

Panovich says the storm will cause sound-side flooding when it reaches the Outer Banks and affect areas that were devastated by Hurricane Florence, such as New Bern and Havelock. 

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Forecast timing

Hurricane Dorian timing

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First Warn meteorologist Chris Mulcahy said reported the outer bands of Dorian are moving closer to the shoreline in Georgia and South Carolina with rain expected in Charleston Wednesday morning. The heaviest rain is expected to reach Charleston Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

The storm will move north up the coast and reach Myrtle Beach by Thursday night into Friday. Dorian is expected to reach the Outer Banks Friday morning, with a possible landfall coming near Hatteras as some of the models start to disagree on the storm’s exact track. 

Sunday evening, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster issued mandatory evacuations for people living along the coastline of South Carolina, as Hurricane Dorian is expected to affect the state by midweek. State troopers began the reversal of all lanes on I-26 out of Charleston Monday morning with evacuations taking effect at 12 p.m. 

“Water, water, water is our concern,” said Panovich, urging anyone told to evacuate to listen. “You run from the water, you hide from the wind.”

RELATED: Mandatory evacuations ordered for entire South Carolina coast, lane reversals for I-26

North Carolina issued a state of emergency ahead of potential impacts from Hurricane Dorian. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster also declared a state of emergency because of the threat of Hurricane Dorian.

Later on Saturday, the city of Charleston declared a state of emergency as well, to ensure the city is fully prepared for emergency operations. The Municipal Emergency Operations Center will be activated Sunday at 8 a.m. and will remain open as needed throughout the storm.

According to the National Weather Service, there is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina during the middle of the week.

The National Hurricane Center said slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations in intensity could occur over the next couple of days. Nevertheless, Dorian is expected to stay a powerful hurricane over the next few days, according to the NHC. 

INTERACTIVE MAP: Track Hurricane Dorian

Watches and warnings

Hurricane Dorian Watches and Warnings Tuesday 5

Hurricane Dorian Watches and Warnings Tuesday 5

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A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

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“Residents in these areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian’s center,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

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