Flooding: Could Hurricane Dorian be like Matthew and Florence?

While heavy rains are projected, officials said the track of the storm coupled with the recent drought should help mitigate flooding problems

WILMINGTON — As Hurricane Dorian churns toward Southeastern North Carolina, the threat of heavy rains drenching the region is a major focus of local officials and residents still reeling from flooding damage caused by recent hurricanes.

That doesn’t mean damage from the hurricane’s winds should be discounted. But with Dorian forecast to skirt the Cape Fear region as it stays largely offshore, significant wind damage could be largely limited to coastal areas.

But a storm as large as Dorian — tropical storm-force winds extended more than 175 miles north of the hurricane Wednesday afternoon — has the potential to send strong rain bands well inland.

Officials, however, aren’t expecting the storm to cause nearly as many flooding woes as 2016’s Hurricane Matthew and last year’s Hurricane Florence, both of which caused widespread flooding, dozens of deaths and catastrophic economic damage.

Both storms also cut vital transportation links across Eastern North Carolina, with Matthew forcing much of Interstate 95 to close for days and Florence’s floodwaters leading Wilmington Mayor Bill Saffo to famously declare the Port City an “island.”

A different storm

Officials said this time, though, should be different.

First is the speed of Dorian.

Although the hurricane was crawling along as it battered the Bahamas and menaced Florida, it is slowly picking up speed as it moves up the East Coast and hits the Gulf Stream. That limits the time the rain bands will be hammering the Wilmington area.

Then there’s the storm’s forecasted track largely offshore, although that’s subject to change as Dorian draws nearer.

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Matthew and Florence, on the other hand, slammed ashore in Southeastern North Carolina and headed inland, leaving plenty of time and opportunity to dump copious amounts of rain on the region.

Unlike those two recent hurricanes, both of which dropped more than 20 inches of rain in parts of Eastern North Carolina, Dorian is expected to dump 6-10 inches in most areas, with the heavier amounts near the coast. The National Weather Service’s Wilmington office said some isolated areas could see up to 15 inches. That’s prompted warning of minor to moderate flooding of the region’s rivers.

Coming out of drought

That amount of precipitation in just a few hours would normally generate lots of red flags.

But the Wilmington area isn’t as vulnerable this time around, officials said.

“We had substantial saturation prior to the oncoming rains of Florence that drove a lot of the flooding issues,” said Steven Still, New Hanover County’s emergency management director. “We don’t have that in place now. We are just now coming out of a drought.”

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of Southeastern North Carolina is classified as “abnormally dry” — one step from “moderate drought” status.

In Pender County, which was one of the hardest-hit counties during both Matthew and Florence, Emergency Management Director Tom Collins said the county’s flooding outlook from Dorian looked “positive.”

He said the county has brought in resources from out of state to help assist in any flooding that may occur, but so far it appears the county will only see flash flooding on roads and flooding in typical, low-lying places around the Black and Northeast Cape Fear rivers.

Collins added that river levels are down, which should help offset some of the rain from Dorian.

It was a similar picture in Brunswick County.

County Emergency Director Edward Conrow said his biggest concern with Dorian was coastal storm surge. He noted that surge can impact not just Brunswick’s barrier islands, but areas around the Cape Fear River and other inlet waterways.

“This year I think the storm’s a little bit different,” he said. “We do expect some type of storm surge We’re adjusting as we go, as (the forecasts) change. We do foresee some flash flooding concerns due to the amount of rain in a short period of time.”

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