Wilmington: Tropical Storm Karen worth watching

The system, now moving over Puerto Rico, is expected to eventually turn toward the U.S. mainland

SOUTHEASTERN N.C. — The tropics are busy, and September is historically the most active — and the most destructive — month of the Atlantic hurricane season.

But does that necessarily mean more trouble for storm-weary Southeastern North Carolina?

It could, especially with Tropical Storm Karen plodding northward out of the Caribbean, but it’s just too early to know right now.

“We just need to wait and see what happens,” said David Loewenthal, forecaster with the National Weather Service’s Wilmington office. “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now with the track.”

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, Karen was 65 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

The storm, still a relatively weak system, was moving north at 8 mph, with that general motion expected to continue for most of Tuesday before Karen strengthens, speeds up and heads north.

And that’s when things could get interesting.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Karen is forecast to basically stall Friday and Saturday out in the open ocean. Storm models show the storm then making a left turn toward the U.S. mainland.

But how hard that turn is, and when it happens, could determine if and when Karen impacts the Cape Fear coast.

“It’s still too early to tell,” Loewenthal said. “But everybody should just check in every so often and see where Karen is, and if we do start to see it start moving to the west, then we should definitely pay attention.”

Behind Karen, and at least 10-14 days away from being a potential concern, is Tropical Storm Lorenzo, which currently is spinning harmlessly in the eastern Atlantic 370 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

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As of right now, Wilmington’s weather leading up to the weekend looks fine, with temperatures in the mid-80s during the day and the low 70s at night.

And rain?

“Just the hit-and-miss kind of stuff, with a better chance of a stray shower on Thursday and Saturday,” Loewenthal said.

Although Hurricane Dorian’s rains helped pull the region out of drought, the Wilmington area has been relatively dry since the early September storm.

The Port City also is still 8.65 inches below normal rainfall amounts for the year. Through Monday, the Wilmington International Airport had recorded 36.46 inches of rain in 2019. The normal annual precipitation amount is 45.11 inches.

Contact the newsroom at 910-343-2384 or Breakingnews@StarNewsOnline.com.

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