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This is the ninth named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
COLUMBIA, S.C. — The path of Tropical Storm Isaias has finally formed in the Carribbean. But now that it’s an official storm, the big question is will it be the next system to make landfall in the United States.
Latest conditions on the storm:
As of the 11 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour with gusts up to 70 miles per hour.
The system was moving towards the northwest at 20 mph, slightly slower than the last advisory.
There’s generally good agreement about where the storm will travel over the next two days. The center will pass across the Dominican Republic.
Where it goes after that is a bit of a challenge. It’s been tough to pinpoint the exact center of the storm, and that will make it harder to pin down it’s track as we go three to five days out.
The graphic below shows the track from the National Hurricane Center. The models shifted more the east (or to the right, if you will) with the 11 AM Thursday advisory. Part of South Carolina is in the cone, you’ll see, but at this point, it’s not time to get alarmed simply because of that fact.
The track shows it skirting the southeastern U.S coastline, getting close to Florida. Then it would continue to curve toward the east, moving along the northern coast of Florida, South Carolina, and finally North Carolina, where it could brush up against the Outer Banks.
The Dominican Republic’s high terrain and a wall of wind shear near Florida could drastically weaken the system as it approaches the southeast US, however.
However, details of the long-range track have been unstable because of the difficulty the system had in organizing. With that in mind, do not base any travel decisions or safety decisions on this latest model run. The models can and will change over the next several days.
If we look at the so-called “spagehtti models,” where each line represents a different computer model, you can see the still remaining uncertainty. The lines are tightly together over the next two days, meaning near universal agreement on the track.
After that time frame, they split, with most of the models going east of the official forecast track, with a possible glancing blow to the Carolinas; others, however, still bring it more towards Florida. Or it could just turn out to sea.
However, they all have the storm moving west, then making a sharp curve to the east. Will that play out? We’ll soon see.
Current Analysis: What about South Carolina?
Right now, it’s still just too early to tell. We’ll continue to monitor this one closely.
As for the rest of the Atlantic, there is one area the National Hurricane Center is watching off the coast of Africa.
The NHC gives this area a 20% chance of further development over the next two to five days.
To track this system as well as any future tropical systems this season, download the WLTX App. Download the WLTX app for Android or iPhone: