Hurricane Isaias: What we know as it heads toward the Carolinas

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The storm, with sustained winds of 75 mph, is expected to hug the East Coast after it reaches Florida

Millions of coastal residents from Florida through Virginia were keeping a wary eye on the tropics heading into the weekend as Hurricane Isaias continued its slow trek toward the U.S. East Coast.

The Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 75 mph, was moving northwest at 16 mph late Friday as it approached Florida after battering the Bahamas Friday morning and Hispaniola, the Caribbean island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico the previous day.

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center projected Isaias to turn north just before Florida’s Atlantic coast and hug the coastline as it moves toward Georgia and the Carolinas.

Here’s what we know, and don’t know, as Isaias approaches the U.S. mainland:

1) When will Isaias start impacting the Carolinas?

The latest models shows Isaias reaching the waters off South Carolina early Monday morning and moving into North Carolina Monday afternoon.

But officials warn that coastal areas will likely see impacts from the hurricane well before the eye is offshore. They include heavy surf, rough offshore waters and potentially gusty winds and heavy rains.

The one positive with Isaias is that, as of Friday, the storm appeared to be rather small and was forecast to move quite quickly once it hits the Gulf Stream, meaning any wind or rain impacts should be relatively short lived.

2) Will Isaias make landfall in the Carolinas?

The quick answer is we don’t know.

Friday afternoon updates from the National Hurricane Center showed the storm’s track remaining offshore in South Carolina before moving close to the coastline of Southeastern North Carolina, potentially clipping Bald Head Island at the mouth of the Cape Fear River, before hugging the coast as it heads north toward Morehead City and the Outer Banks.

3) What impacts could Isaias bring?

Heavy rains, 4 inches or more in places, could fall in some coastal areas as the storm passes by. Rainfall amounts will be determined by how close Isaias comes to land, with inland areas expected to see 2-4 inches.

Ditto for tropical storm-force winds, although they also likely will only be a serious issue close to the coast and offshore.

Another question is how strong Isaias will be when it reaches the Carolinas. Isaias reached hurricane status, with sustained winds of at least 74 mph, Thursday over the Bahamas, and is expected to remain a Category 1 storm as it moves up the Florida coast.

“Tropical storm force winds possible Sunday night through Monday night,” stated a Friday advisory from the U.S. National Weather Service’s Wilmington office, which covers the Wilmington, N.C., and Myrtle Beach, S.C., areas. “Considerable uncertainty remains but the threat level is increasing especially along and off the coast.”

Other impacts from the storm are likely to be beach erosion, localized flooding, power outages and downed trees.

4) Beware the rip

Rip currents, not sharks, are the leading killer of swimmers at the country’s beaches. And heavy surf and strong currents kicked up by storms like Hurricane Isaias are notorious for generating strong, dangerous rip currents.

While officials admit the strength and path of Isaias remains uncertain, they are sure that the storm will generate dangerous rip currents at area beaches well before the storm itself approaches the Carolinas.

Rips are powerful channels of water flowing away from the beach. The dangerous surf conditions can trap even the strongest swimmers, and drownings occur as people exhaust themselves fighting the powerful currents.

5) Prepare now – and don’t forget the pandemic

As we all know, 2020 isn’t a typical year – and that includes the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Isaias, the ninth named storm of the season, is the earliest I-named storm ever, and two storms — Arthur and Bertha – formed even before the official June 1 start of the hurricane season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned coastal communities to prepare for an above-normal hurricane season, with up to 19 named storms, of which up to 10 could become hurricanes. An average hurricane season sees 12 named storms, six of which are hurricanes.

But an added unwanted twist to this year’s hurricane season is COVID-19. For emergency officials, the pandemic has complicated evacuation planning due to the need to practice social distancing at shelters. The coronavirus outbreak, officials worry, also could make some residents less inclined to leave their homes – even if they live in vulnerable areas.

For residents the pandemic means that along with spending the days before Monday reviewing their disaster preparedness kits and plans, they also should make sure they have extra hand sanitizer and masks in case they do evacuate or decide to take in relatives or friends who don’t want to go to a shelter or a hotel.

As of Friday afternoon there had been only one evacuation order issued in North Carolina. Hyde County ordered a mandatory evacuation of Ocracoke Island, a vulnerable island near the southern end of the Outer Banks that was heavily damaged by Hurricane Dorian in September 2019.

Contact Gareth McGrath at Gareth.McGrath@StarNewsOnline.com.