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A storm system will move into the Carolinas from the Gulf Coast, bringing rain and a minimal chance for some severe weather early Monday and into Monday morning, WRAL meteorologist Mike Maze said.
Maze added that the threat for severe weather will start to materialize after 4 a.m. on Monday.
“The primary threat comes from a damaging wind gust with a small possibility for a tornado,” he said. “The air mass does not look ‘unstable’ enough for this to be a widespread severe risk nor a strong severe risk, but there’s enough shear in the atmosphere, meaning a strong jet stream aloft, that any winds from aloft could make their way to the ground and create damage.”
Maze said there will be more concern for tornadic potential in Central North Carolina starting around 3 a.m. on Monday.
“For most of us through the night we have a low-end potential, [I’m] not concerned until 5 a.m. that there would be a tornado” he added. “As you get into the morning hours, our tornado potential goes up, but the timing plays a key role.”
Maze explained that if there is no thunderstorms in the area to take on rotation, then we won’t have anything to break out.
The biggest threats are heavy rain, localized flooding, and damaging winds but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
Maze said winds could gust up to 60 mph overnight until Monday afternoon.
“Your morning commute [is] likely to be wet,” said Maze. “It’ll be windy during this time period.”
Monday afternoon will likely be drier, but winds could still gust up to 35-40 mph.
Behind the system, colder air moves in and brings the chance for some snow in the North Carolina mountains.
Raleigh and the surrounding area could see about an inch of rain total before noon on Monday.
After the storms pass, Monday stays windy but warm, with a high forecast in the mid- to upper 60s.
The real chill comes Monday night and Tuesday.
Tuesday will be sunny, but it will feel like winter, with the high temperature only in the 40s.
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will all be chilly days in the Triangle, and overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s.