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Tropics: Tropical Storm Fred develops in the Caribbean
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and a portion of the Dominican Republic.
Lauren Rautenkranz, TimDeegan, Makayla Lucero (WTLV), Robert Speta
5:06 AM EDT May 20, 2021
11:15 PM EDT August 10, 2021
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Tropical Storm Fred has developed in the Caribbean. Fred may impact the First Coast by late this weekend into early next week. The extent of those impacts is still unclear, but we will continue to fine-tune the forecast day by day. Overall, the Jacksonville area can expect an increase in storm coverage with a flood threat due to recent, heavy rains and saturated grounds. Any additional rainfall would prolong river flooding as well.
Now is the time to stock up on supply kits and review your family’s emergency plan, especially with the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season getting underway.
As of the 11 p.m. advisory on Tuesday, the disturbance was moving across the northeastern Caribbean Sea. It was about 100 miles south of Puerto Rico and was moving west at 17 mph. Based on surface observations from the islands and data from the Hurricane Hunters, the system still does not have a well-defined circulation. Although the satellite appearance shows some increase in organization, the surface data suggest no significant strengthening has occurred thus far.
Looking deeper into the season, the Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Watch with La Niña potentially emerging from September through November. La Niña can help make atmospheric conditions more conducive for tropical cyclones to form the Atlantic, and less conducive in the Eastern Pacific. If 2021 is any indicator so far of what lies ahead this season, it could continue to be an active year. As of the beginning of July, there have been five named storms breaking the previous record set just last year. In August, the Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated hurricane outlook.
Hurricane season is here and it’s time to be prepared if you aren’t already. Make sure you have had conversations with your loved ones about what you would do if a storm were to threaten.
This year, NOAA released the new seasonal averages for the Atlantic basin. According to the 30-year data from 1991 to 2020, the new averages include 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The averages from 1951-1980 , were 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major.
Hurricane safety and preparedness are critically important even before the season begins on June 1. NOAA’s National Weather Service provides resources to prepare for hurricane hazards and real-time updates about active weather systems from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
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