Tropical Storm Nicholas is now a hurricane. Where and when could it make landfall in Texas?

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Tropical Storm Nicholas became a hurricane Monday night as it continues its path toward the Texas coast, prompting local school districts to close and the community to brace for substantial rain.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 10 p.m. advisory, the storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and is located 20 miles southeast of Matagorda and is moving north northwest at 10 mph. Nicholas could bring rains of 8 to 16 inches across the coastal area.

As the storm approaches the area, here’s what we know about whether Nicholas could become a hurricane when to expect landfall.

Nicholas is Category 1 hurricane

The National Weather Service said NIcholas had sustained winds speeds of 75 mph in it’s Monday evening advisory. A storm is considered a hurricane if it has sustained winds of at least 74 mph.

Should Nicholas’s winds dip below that speed, it will be considered a tropical storm again.

For example, Nicholas could lose power once it makes landfall and downgraded to a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Nicholas forecast to make landfall near Matagorda Bay

The majority of spaghetti models forecast Nicholas to move north through the Gulf and to potentially make landfall east of Corpus Christi.

CBS News Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said Monday morning that the storm could hit near Port Lavaca Monday night. Meteorologist Allan Huffman agreed on Twitter, forecasting the storm could make landfall near Matagorda Bay.

The National Weather Service Houston and Corpus Christi offices both have said landfall could happen Monday night, too. Current models show the storm could hit during the overnight hours between late Monday night and Tuesday morning.

The storm is forecast to result in heavy rain along the coast this week.

Storm surge warnings and watches

Nicholas has already resulted in several weather warnings and watches

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

  • Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
  • Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

  • Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
  • Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for: 

  • Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
  • San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay
  • Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass