Two severe weather chances this week

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Charlotte has two chance for sever storms Tuesday through Thursday. Flooding, wind damage and tornadoes are all possible

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Over the next few days, the South from Texas to the Carolinas will be under an elevated threat for severe storms and tornadoes. This is all credited to a warm front, and a powerful Mid-Latitude Cyclone (A low pressure system that has a well defined warm front and cold front. Under the right conditions these storms can become monsters and underneath them has the best chance for strong storms). 

Round 1: Tuesday

Storms will be firing west and southwest of Charlotte Monday but this threat shifts to the Carolinas on Tuesday. The morning will start off dry but then showers and storms will develop quickly. 

The Threats:

Areas in the read above have a 10% chance for tornadoes and this is where most of the activity will be. The general forecast rule set for Tuesday is that, “severe weather worsens the further south you head.” 

The Tornado Threat is at 2% on Tuesdayy afternoon. Mainly a spin-up tornado will be possible through the afternoon but these storms will be flying. This means that isolated winds up to 40-60+ mph will be possible along the line. Rain rates will also be high, which means localized and urban flooding will be possible quickly. 

The Top 3 in Order:

  • 1. Flooding
  • 2. Wind Damage
  • 3. Tornadoes

The Timing:

Here is the futurecast for Tuesday afternoon. 

As mentioned the mid to late afternoon will be the main window. This should be a quick moving line of thunderstorms that could blast in some gusty winds and spin up a quick tornado. Any damage will happen quick along the leading edge. 

RELATED: Weather IQ: The most important tool to forecast thunderstorms

Round 2: Wednesday Evening into Thursday Morning

This is trending to be an overnight event. Areas in the red again represent a 10% chance for Tornadoes. This will likely be a QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System). This means a strong line of thunderstorms that is not completely straight. This allows for spin up tornadoes to form. This set up happened last Thursday that caused a tornado in Anson into Stanly County. 

This means a threat for damaging winds overnight but also a tornado risk in the dark. Now storm fuel will wane overnight, so the later the timing, the better. The exact timing is still unclear, but anytime in the evening and beyond you need to be “weather aware.”

RELATED: EF-2 tornado confirmed in Anson and Stanly counties during Thursday’s storms