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Colorado State University predicting slightly below-average hurricane season

WILMINGTON, NC (CNN) — The Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t officially begin for another seven weeks, but early signs indicate there is more uncertainty than normal with this particular season – all thanks to El Niño.
Colorado State University released its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday morning and is predicting 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Each of these numbers is slightly below the typical season average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
“We anticipate that the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below-average activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU.
“Current neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop.”
Klotzbach says that one of those factors leading to uncertainty is sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures are one of the ingredients needed to fuel hurricanes. The warmer the ocean, the more fuel available for the storms to tap into. And currently, sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal, which means, even if El Niño does develop, the potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season.
While CSU’s forecast calls for slightly below-average numbers overall, the odds of a US landfall appear to be as high as in any normal year.
“We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” Klotzbach said.
“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
The biggest factor this year will definitely be El Niño.
“How quickly El Niño sets in could have significant impacts on how hurricane season unfolds, as it is one of the primary weather patterns affecting tropical seasons in the Atlantic and Pacific,” said CNN Meteorologist Brandon Miller.
“You can’t accurately predict this hurricane season without accurately predicting when and how intense El Niño will get by this fall.”