Tropical update: National Hurricane Center monitoring spot that could develop in southern Gulf

HOUSTON — The National Hurricane Center is keeping close eye on a spot in the western Caribbean that could develop in the southern Gulf. 

The disturbance currently has a 20% chance of tropical development.

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The weather system originates from a piece of energy currently located off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, east of Belize. While nothing has developed at the moment, forecasters are monitoring its potential path into the Gulf waters.

“There’s a little piece of energy right here off the coast of the Yucatan east of Belize. There’s nothing developed here at the moment,” KHOU 11 Chief Meteorologist David Paul explained. “If this little piece of energy can cross the Yucatan, get into the Southern Gulf in a few days, something might try to develop here.”

The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook shows the disturbance marked with an X off the coast of Belize, with development chances increasing once it reaches the southern Gulf.

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Computer modeling suggests the system could form a closed low-pressure system by Saturday in the southern Gulf. David noted the presence of closed isobars – lines of equal pressure that indicate potential low-pressure development.

“The models are closing off an isobar down here in the Southern Gulf. That has what is what has perked up the ears of the hurricane center,” David said.

By Sunday, modeling shows the possibility of even better organization, with multiple closed isobars suggesting stronger low-pressure development at the surface.

Even if the system doesn’t develop into a named storm, it could still affect the Texas coast with enhanced rainfall chances.

“Even if this does just stay here, you know, it’s a broad counterclockwise rotation and that would sling moisture even up into the Texas coast,” David explained. “It could sling moisture up here even if nothing develops at all we could have an enhanced rain chances.”

The forecast models show the system potentially moving into central Mexico by Monday and Tuesday, with moisture possibly reaching the Texas coast.

If the disturbance develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Barry. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has already produced one named storm – Andrea, which formed north of Bermuda and moved into the open Atlantic without affecting land.

Statistically, June and July development typically occurs in the Gulf, Western Caribbean, or along the east coast.

Continued monitoring is important, even with the relatively low development chances.

“You never know, sometimes these things can overperform and develop quicker, faster or stronger than we think they will, so something we’ll be watching carefully over the coming days,” David said.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin remains quiet with significant dust limiting storm development in the open ocean.

Residents along the Gulf Coast should continue monitoring tropical updates as the situation develops over the weekend. The KHOU 11 weather team will provide continued coverage of any tropical development.

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