Early information suggests much blame to go around in tragic Central Texas flooding

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Wikimedia Commons / Bob McMillan

Recovery effort workers attempt to address the devastation in the aftermath of the Kerrville flood.

In the wake of a devastating July Fourth flood that claimed more than 100 lives in Central Texas, a search is underway, not just for survivors but for someone — or something — to blame.

As could be expected, some have been politicizing the tragedy, and as the public demands answers, leaders at the federal, state and local level have already sought to shift blame.

“There’s going to be a lot of finger-pointing, a lot of second-guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking,” Republican U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, whose district includes Kerr County, said in a press conference the day after the tragedy. “There’s a lot of people saying ‘why’ and ‘how,’ and I understand that.” 

Even U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican known for weaponizing anything and everything into a partisan attack, urged people to focus on rescue efforts and not seek to assign blame. 

“I talked about the partisan finger-pointing … just immediately trying to use it, for either side to attack their political opponents, I think that’s cynical and not the right approach,” Cruz told Fox News. 

But as with many such tragedies, the truth isn’t so simple — and those affected are eager to see it uncovered. 

The Texas Hill Country will likely spend the coming weeks, months or even years assessing what went wrong. As the facts continue to come in, not all of them will fit into neat, partisan boxes. 

And what’s already come to light suggests that there may be plenty of blame to go around.  

National Weather Service and DOGE cuts

Kerr County officials maintain the National Weather Service didn’t properly notify the local authorities that a flood of such severity was imminent. At a news conference last Friday, when reporters pressed Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly about why the area wasn’t evacuated the day before, he replied, “We didn’t know this flood was coming.”

As criticisms commenced, some observers were quick to blame the communication breakdown on the early retirement of National Weather Service San Antonio-Austin Warning Coordination Meteorologist Paul Yura in April. 

Yura’s departure was prompted by staff cuts ordered by the White House’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and the Office of Personnel Management. The Austin-San Antonio Weather Forecast Office currently has six vacancies, according to its website. 

However, in a Monday morning interview with TV news program Democracy Now!, retired NOAA meteorologist Alan Gerard said the DOGE cuts didn’t directly impact the federal response to this emergency.

“It does appear that, overall, for the actual event as it occurred, the warnings went out as they should have,” Gerard said. “The office was staffed appropriately.”

Even so, Gerard warned that the White House cuts might worsen the outcomes of other weather events — especially as hurricane season begins.

Early warnings

The matter of how and when local authorities reacted to the warnings is also under scrutiny. 

The NWS began warning of a severe storm as early as Wednesday. The Texas Division of Emergency Management also issued a press release that same day announcing that it was deploying emergency personnel ahead of flood threats in West and Central Texas.

NWS tweeted out a flood watch for the area Thursday afternoon, predicting up to 7 inches of rain. However, it upgraded its flood watch to a flood warning via a tweet at 11:42 p.m. That status upgrade signifies a flood is either underway or imminent. 

At 1:14 a.m., the NWS issued a “potentially catastrophic” flash flood warning, which automatically triggered Wireless Emergency Alerts on mobile devices. However, some campers were without a phone, the Texas Tribune reports. 

By 3:06 a.m., the NWS posted that “a very dangerous flash flooding event is ongoing,” adding “Turn around, don’t drown!” By 4:23 a.m. the service was calling the situation a “flash flood emergency,” a rare term only used for the most severe flooding events with the potential for extreme loss of life.

Too Late

The Kerrville Police Department didn’t post about the flooding until 5:16 a.m. on July 4, by then calling it a “life threatening event” and encouraging people to seek higher ground. The Kerr County Sheriff’s Office didn’t post about the flood until 5:32 a.m. 

At 6:22 a.m., Kerrville City Hall shared its first flood announcement via Facebook, stating that the area was getting “much needed rain” which might affect July Fourth holiday activities. The city added that Louise Hays Park, where a fireworks viewing was scheduled, had already flooded.

Some Facebook users criticized the delay in social media alerts. They also blasted the announcement’s tone of levity in calling the weather event “much needed rain.” Comments on the post have since been disabled.

In addition to issues with the social media announcements, Kerrville’s portion of the Guadalupe River had no siren system to warn sleeping campers and those in RVs about the rising water levels. 

The Fourth of July deluge was the worst flood since 1987 — an event that prompted the installation of some alarms along the river. However, Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice told NPR that he believes those alert systems were installed south of Kerrville. 

“There [are] not alarms everywhere on the river,” Rice said.

During a Friday press conference, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said the county has no warning system. He added that the county had considered investing in an outdoor warning siren, much like those used for tornados, but that “the public reeled at the cost,” according to multiple media outlets. A single siren can cost between $10,000 and $50,000, KXAN reports.

Without sufficient warning, the river that rose swiftly in the dark of night became a silent killer. For many sleeping victims, by the time they were awakened by the flood it was already too late.

Despite living in “flash flood alley,” local officials admit that even they were caught off-guard by the severity of the flood, during which the Guadalupe rose 26 feet in 45 minutes.

Kerr County officials have asked the state to fund a flood warning project three separate times to no avail, the Houston Chronicle reports. In 2018, Kerr County, in partnership with the Upper Guadalupe River Authority, applied for a $1 million grant for a flood warning system, but the application was not selected. Two years later, it tried again. In 2023, it was still discussing grant options to fund flood mitigation, according to meeting minutes reported by Austin TV station KXAN.

Additionally, during its most recent session, the Texas Legislature failed to pass House Bill 13, which would have established a grant enabling counties to improve emergency communication and response infrastructure. 

Still, had it passed, the law wouldn’t have gone into effect until Sept. 1.

On Tuesday, local officials dodged reporters’ questions about whether Kerrville has an Office of Emergency Management — as many cities do — or even an official in charge of monitoring emergency alerts from the NWS. 

Officials — many of whom might shoulder some of the blame — are conveniently saying it’s too early to ask what went wrong. However, it’s only natural to search for answers in the wake of such a tragedy, and those answers, however painful, will emerge in time.