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The latest: Central NC sees rain, 70s. Flooding possible along I-95
Waves of soaking rain are in the forecast – first driven by a cold front that will ease our summer-like warmth, following by the impact of two tropical systems.
Local leaders are preparing for the impacts from the rain, with Raleigh officials lowering water levels at Lake Johnson to ease the risk of flooding downstream.
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Periods of rain and downpours are expected over the weekend. Then, a tropical system could bring more rain our way next week.
Helpful links: Search your address to see your flood risk | DualDoppler5000 | When, where, what: Timing the rain | Download WRAL apps to get alerts | All active weather alerts | ReportIt: Send us flooding pics | What to do on a rainy day
The latest
1 p.m.: Showers have moved east of the Triangle, with an area from Bailey to Spring Hope and east to Nashville seeing the heaviest rain in the early afternoon hours. The National Weather Service issued a flood advisory for parts of Nash and Wilson counties through 4:15 p.m.
Rain chances slowly decrease into Saturday evening with the chance for a thunderstorm. Be sure to bring a poncho if you plan to be outside Saturday.
11 a.m.: The tropical system we’ve been tracking in the Caribbean became a tropical depression Saturday morning. It is expected to reach tropical storm strength by Saturday night.
At the same time, rain from the south spread across Raleigh and the surrounding area. No severe storms are expected Saturday, but off-and-on rain will make for a gloomy day.
10 a.m.: The bands of rain we see today are not coming from the two tropical systems active in the Atlantic. An area of low pressure over Tennessee is fueling the rain we see today, from late morning into the afternoon.
9 a.m.: After an early morning break, central North Carolina was seeing showers Saturday morning. WRAL meteorologist Chris Michaels says these showers will gradually make their way east, with storm chances getting lower as the day goes on.
8 a.m.: Rain returns to the Sandhills and tracks towards the Triangle. Chapel Hill, Apex should expect to see morning showers.
7 a.m.: Forecast models are trending toward a combination of Hurricane Humberto and potential tropical cyclone 9 (which would be named Imelda), and that is good news for North Carolina. Models are trending toward pulling a tropical system away from the Carolina coast. Even without a landfall, potential tropical cyclone No. 9 (PTC No. 9 would be named Imelda should it develop further) is likely to bring waves of rain and localized flooding to the Carolinas through mid-week.
6 a.m.: We got a break from the showers as day broke Saturday, but they return by late morning, WRAL meteorologist Chris Michaels said. It’s a damp and humid start to the weekend, with a medium risk of flooding throughout the day, from Interstate 95 and east.
Friday, Sept. 26
12 a.m.: Firefighters blamed a lightning strike for a fire in the third floor of a Durham home that left 10 people without a place to stay.
11 p.m.: Showers and storms have reached the Triangle area and will stick around for several hours. Showers and thunderstorms look likely at least through 3 a.m., according to meteorologist Mike Maze.
Maze said showers will die down afterwards Saturday morning, but the rain will pick up throughout the day Saturday, with the heaviest chances in the afternoon.
9:30 p.m.: Coverage is growing as the storm continues to move across the southern counties. Meteorologist Mike Maze said the storms should diminish after midnight.
8:15 p.m.: Showers are beginning to pop up pretty heavy around the southern counties. Meteorologist Kat Campbell said areas in Johnston County, such as Smithfield, are starting to dry out. Though Four Oaks could see a little more rain move in.
8 p.m.: Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, which will be named Imelda, draws closer to the South Carolina coast. PTC 9 is 75 miles northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba, as of the 8 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center.
PTC 9 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving 10 mph west-northwest.
6 p.m.: Several high school football games across the state are still set for kickoff Friday night. Several games started as early as 4 p.m., with others starting between 6 and 6:30 p.m.
5 p.m.: Futurecast shows expanded rain coverage by late Friday night, with the radar appearing active from rain bands lifting to the north.
3:30 p.m.: At the coast, Brunswick County Schools will be closed on Monday due to the expected impact from a tropical system.
2 p.m.: The system that will become Imelda is expected to become a potential tropical cyclone later on Friday. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. update, the system has a 90% chance of development. The system is producing a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Gradual development of the system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves northwestward or northward across the Bahamas.
12:20 p.m.: WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner said isolated showers and storms pop up during the afternoon. Not everyone will see heavy rain today, but we’ll see it in pockets.
“The later we go into the afternoon and evening, the better chance that you may end up seeing some rain,” Gardner said. “Some of that could be heavy.”
Noon: Rain showers could ramp up Friday evening and Saturday, and the city of Raleigh is lowering Lake Johnson to help reduce potential flooding. Crews have been lowering the lake since Wednesday, and the water level is already 2 feet lower than it was previously. It takes one day to lower Lake Johnson by 1 foot, which is why crews began working days before the storm.
9 a.m.: A handful of varsity high school football games in North Carolina have been rescheduled due to rain and lightning. Showers and storms will become more widespread Friday evening, but it will be rainier on Saturday, according to WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner.
8 a.m.: The rain we’ll see Friday and this weekend is not related to a tropical system, soon-to-be-named Imelda, nearing South Carolina’s coast. The system is expected to bring us rain next week, which could lead to flooding in our area.
7 a.m.: We’re expecting between 3 and 5 inches of rain with some isolated higher amounts over the next five days, and we could see even more rain into the middle of next week. Localized flooding will be a concern with at least a low-end flood risk each day, according to WRAL meteorologist Grant Skinner.
6 a.m.: A WRAL Weather Alert Day is in effect immediately due to a risk for flooding that begins late Friday and carries us into the weekend and next week. With several inches of rain in our forecast over the next few days, the WAD has no set end date.
WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner said we could see heavy rain through Tuesday at least, and 5 inches of rain could fall in that timeframe.
5 a.m.: Saturday now has a medium, Level 2 (out of 4) threat for flooding. Showers and storms will be scattered on Friday, but WRAL meteorologists say the heaviest rain will fall on Saturday. Flood advisories could be issued.
Timing: Waves of rain this weekend
After flooding in Johnston County and a slew of thunderstorm warnings on Thursday evening, a cold front will continue bringing rain to our area Friday and for much of the weekend. Friday will be a cooler day, with highs in the 80s instead of the 90s, and highs could drop to the 70s for Saturday and Sunday.
Rain showers will be likely throughout Friday, with the chance for heavier rain and storms increasing Friday evening. There is a more than 80% chance of rain after 6 p.m., and high school football games could be impacted by the weather.
Unfortunately for weekend plans, the heaviest rain is forecast for Saturday and Sunday, which have between a 70% chance and an 80% chance of rain. If you have outdoor activities scheduled, make sure to have a backup plan.
Highs will drop into the upper 70s on Saturday, and heavy rain and localized flooding remain likely all day. Flood advisories and flash flood warnings will be possible, so make sure to download the WRAL News weather app. Saturday appears to be the wettest day, according to Gardner.
Sunday may be a bit drier, but still not ideal for outdoor plans. Temperatures will stay mild, and skies will be cloudy with scattered showers and storms possible much of the day.
“We still have the potential for some localized flooding [on Sunday] as some of the rain will be heavy at times,” Gardner said.
By Monday, we could have our next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Imelda. The system, which could strengthen before impacting South Carolina’s coast, will bring rip currents to North Carolina’s southern beaches.
Rain bands from the storm could be felt in the Triangle as early as Monday or Tuesday.
FEMA prepares for potential impact
FEMA officials are closely monitoring and preparing ahead of Invest 94L, which the National Hurricane Center predicts could become a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. Officials said they are communicating with state and local officials to make sure they are prepared for any potential impact.
On Thursday, officials urged residents along the coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. to pay attention to their local officials and warnings, and prepare now. As the system continues to develop, officials say they are “ready to respond swiftly, if needed.”
Calls between state officials and FEMA are ongoing. Federal Coordinating Officers are already in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina from other disasters and are working closely on any federal requests for assistance, officials said.