Tropical Storm Dorian strengthening as it closes in on Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Dorian is gaining more organization as it closes in on the Windward Islands with 60 mph winds.

The storm, which is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to the islands later today, was about 205 miles east-southeast of Barbados as of the 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It is moving west at 14 mph.

Dorian is expected to reach hurricane strength later this week near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola before weakening to a tropical depression by Friday as it nears the southeast Bahamas.

Tropical Storm #Dorian is approaching the Windward Islands. Here are the 5 am AST August 26th Key Messages. For more information visit https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/pI2fXTDbkq

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 26, 2019

The small storm has tropical storm-force winds that extend 40 miles from its center.

A reduction in wind shear and higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern Caribbean will allow Dorian to gain strength over the next few days.

But dry air surrounding the cyclone is expected to limit the rate of intensification.

Significant weakening near Hispaniola is likely going to occur with an increase of wind shear and interaction with the mountainous island.

Still, National Hurricane Center specialist John Cangialosi said the official forecast is between models that show little or no strengthening and those that show significant strengthening.

Small tropical cyclones such as Dorian are “often challenging to predict,” he said.

“It should be noted that the European and American models have been very consistent in showing Dorian dissipating over the Caribbean Sea,” he said. “Due to the wide range of the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low confidence.”

#Dorian looking better on satellite imagery this evening. The National Hurricane Center has noted the storm is intensifying in their recent update. pic.twitter.com/NR6JbWJXBr

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) August 25, 2019

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Dominica, Martinique, Grenada and its dependencies.

AccuWeather forecasters said Monday that Dorian’s small size will spare large areas of the Caribbean from feeling its winds, but noted that small storms can be unpredictable.

“Small storms can undergo rapid fluctuations in intensity,” AccuWeather wrote. “As a result, there is the potential for Dorian to reach hurricane status before reaching the Lesser Antilles.”

Closer to the U.S., Invest 98L is still promising development with the hurricane center giving it an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

Hurricane center forecasters said a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later Monday or Tuesday from this system. If it does, it would be named Erin.

Kmiller@pbpost.com

@Kmillerweather