Tropical Storm Watch issued for southeast Louisiana as Cristobal begins move into Gulf

NEW ORLEANS — 1 PM  Update: Cristobal has restrengthened into a tropical storm. The center has moved back over water and will continue to organize more once it gets back over the Gulf waters Friday evening. This will continue all the way through landfall on Sunday night. Cristobal is expected to slowly strengthen as it moves across the Gulf on Saturday, but  is battling a lot of dry air to the west and south of the low, so significant intensity change isn’t currently expected. 

Landfall is now expected on Sunday evening as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds on the central Louisiana coastline. This will be a large system with heavy rain stretching from Louisiana all the way through the Florida peninsula.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. Possible storm surge of 2-4+ ft.

There is a lot of dry air on the western side of the center. It will remain over land for most of today and that will keep it disorganized. It is expected to move back over land tonight and there will be a slow strengthening into a tropical storm by Saturday morning. The question remains where it will emerge back over water.

Cristobal will be pulled north across the Gulf of Mexico by a trough of low pressure in the U.S. It will gradually pick up speed and make a landfall Sunday night into Monday morning along the Louisiana coast between Grand Isle and Morgan City with 60 mph winds.

The structure of Cristobal will be very asymmetric or very large. This means rain and wind will not only be around the center, but also displaced far from the center across the Florida Peninsula.

The main threat for Louisiana will be heavy rain with rainfall total estimates around 4-10″+ of rain. Rainfall rates could be around 2-4″ per hour in some of the rain bands, and that will lead to flash flooding issues. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Tuesday morning. Please stay weather aware Sunday and Monday and watch out for street flooding.

Additional impacts to Southeast Louisiana Sunday through Tuesday:

• Coastal flooding with tides running 1 to 3 feet above normal levels. Terrebonne Bay and between the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River could see levels around 4-6 feet.

• Tornadoes – we will be on the northeast side of the storm (favorable side of a system for tornadoes) on Saturday and Sunday. A few tornadoes could form in the outer rain bands.

• Sustained winds around 40-60+ mph with higher gusts

There is still some uncertainty with the forecast until it moves back over the water. Expect some changes to the forecast over the next few days. Make sure you check back for updates here and on WWLTV.

TRACKING CRISTOBAL: Latest track, radar, and spaghetti models

Check back for updates as the forecast will continue to evolve.

 RELATED: Track Rain on Southeast Louisiana Radar

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The official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season was June 1. This season is predicted to be more active than average, due to factors like a potential La Nina event by September and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures.

NOAA’s forecast issued on May 21 predicts 13-19 named storms of which 6-10 would be hurricanes and 3-6 would be major hurricanes (of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha which formed in May were the first two named storms of the year in the Atlantic. This is the sixth year in a row with a named storm forming earlier than the official start of hurricane season.

► Track the tropics, live updates from Your Local Weather Experts delivered directly to you throughout the hurricane season by downloading the FREE WWL-TV News app now in the IOS App Store or Google Play.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st and predictions are being made. 

Colorado State University predicts an above-normal season. The forecast calls for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes ( category 3 or higher). A normal season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

Typically when we have an El Nino wind shear is stronger and hurricane season can be less active. The reason for this above-normal forecast is the due to the lack of El Nino expected and the possibility that La Nina develops. This could lead to weaker wind shear over areas where tropical cyclones form. 

Here’s a look at the chance our area will see impacts from a hurricane this season. The chance that Louisiana will see impacts from a hurricane currently sits around 43%. That’s lower for Mississippi at 17%. The chance a major hurricane will hit somewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas is 44%. That’s up from 30% during a normal season. 

Remember, it only takes one storm for it to be an active season for our area. The Gulf Coast has seen impacts during quiet seasons and no impacts during busy seasons. It’s important to have a plan regardless of the forecast. 

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