Damaging ice, flash floods, power outages and more all possible as a winter weather system arrives

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By WRAL Severe Weather Center

Areas from the Triangle northward could see dangerous ice accumulation overnight and all day Thursday, according to the WRAL weather team.

A winter storm warning goes into effect at midnight for Durham, Orange, Person, Granville, Vance, Warren, Forsyth, Guilford and Alamance counties and extends until 7 a.m. on Friday. Fourteen counties in the WRAL viewing area are under a winter storm warning or advisory.

Meteorologist Kat Campbell says that a “major ice storm is likely” in Person, Granville, Vance and Mecklenburg (Va.) Counties. These areas are most likely to see power outages and travel impacts.

“The Triangle will not see widespread travel impacts but some slick bridges will be possible (mainly in Durham and Chapel Hill) through about 10 a.m. I think this will be a low-impact, freezing rain event for the areas under the Winter Weather Advisory (including Wake County) with most roads staying in good shape,” Campbell said.

Because of the winter weather threat, Wake County has postponed it’s drive-thru vaccination site at PNC Arena Thursday.

The county will move all appointments scheduled for Thursday to Monday, Feb. 22. Anyone scheduled to get the shot tomorrow who is not available to get vaccinated Monday should contact the COVID-19 call center at 919-250-1515.

Vaccinations were not scheduled to start until noon on Thursday at the Wake County Commons Building and our Sunnybrook facility, so those appointments will continue as planned. All Wake County COVID-19 testing locations will delay opening until noon on Thursday. For a list of sites, please visit our COVID-19 testing webpage.

Campbell says her biggest concern for this storm is power outages.

“We could see trees coming down causing problems, the power lines are going to sag with this much icing on them, and many trees are already weak from the systems that moved through last week,” Campbell said. “And grounds are saturated, so trees can come down easier.”

Durham and Orange counties could see up to a quarter-inch of ice. Person, Granville, Vance and Mecklenburg (Va.) counties could get a half-inch or more, causing major impacts.

♦ Timeline for freezing rain

Precipitation will start after midnight and continue through the morning. Freezing rain could fall. causing roads to become slick. Downed trees and power outages are expected in many of the same areas that just regained power after a weekend ice storm.

Meteorologist Mike Maze says we’ll start to see both rain and sleet creep into our area a little after midnight, but it won’t be until later in the morning that we start seeing real accumulation.

“It’s really not until the morning commute that we start to see some of the heavier precipitation move on in,” Maze said.

Maze says that by 7 a.m. he expects to see freezing rain in the Triangle, but he doesn’t think it will last too long or have too big of an impact.

“The greater impact will be in our northwestern counties that got slammed Saturday with up to three tenths of an inch of ice.”

Maze says that by 10 a.m. our northwestern counties will still be seeing some freezing rain, but that the Triangle’s precipitation will be shifted to just rain. The freezing rain in those northwestern communities will likely last into the middle of the afternoon as the system makes its way out of our area.

Duke Energy predicts the Carolinas could see up to a million power outages as a result of the storm, with some outages lasting several days. More than 1,300 Duke Energy employees have come in from other parts of the country to help with the expected interruptions in service.

Areas in Wake County will see up to a tenth of a inch with a quarter-inch possible in the northern part of the county. Wake County, Chatham County, Lee County, Moore County, Franklin County, Nash County and Halifax County are all under a winter weather advisory.

♦ Flooding concerns

Flash flood watch issued for much of central NC, including Wake County, beginning Thursday morning and lasting until Friday morning. Two to three inches of rain is possible in many counties.

“We’re really concerned about flash flooding,” Campbell said. “And not only could we see flash flooding, but river flooding, as well is a concern.”

Areas south and east of Wake County will see only rain.

Due to breezy conditions and winds gusting up to 25 mph, “our scenario could be worse than what we saw on Saturday,” meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner said, referencing an ice storm that knocked out power to hundreds of people in Durham, Orange, Person and Guilford counties, among others, over the weekend.

Gardner said Thursday’s situation will be “serious,” especially in those counties closer to the Virginia line that could see up to a half inch of ice. Broken tree limbs, power outages and slick surfaces become a problem when there is a quarter inch of ice. If there is more accumulation, conditions become severe.

It’s important to understand the stress that ice can add to power lines. An accumulation of a quarter-inch of ice can add up to 250 pounds of weight and a half-inch of ice can add up to 500 pounds. Gusty winds could make things more dangerous as well. Winds could gust from 25 to 30 miles an hour.

Track rainfall totals here

Strong wind gusts expected Thursday only increase the risk for power outages. By lunchtime on Thursday, when temperatures rise, much of the freezing rain should be over, although power outages could last for days.

Rain could continue Friday morning, clearing by the afternoon. By then, much of central North Carolina could see between 1.2 and 2 inches of rain, and there is even a risk for isolated flooding as river levels rise.

Those in counties north of the Triangle and around the North Carolina/Virginia border should prepare for a major ice storm and take necessary precautions.

Schools are closing

♦ Durham Public Schools

Due to the anticipated inclement weather, Durham Public Schools facilities will be closed and remote learning, meal services and in-person events will be canceled on Thursday. This will affect DPS Learning Centers, all athletic events, and on-site screenings for pre-K and ESL students. School-based virtual events will be canceled as well due to the possibility of power outages.

The day will be a teacher workday; there will be no scheduled online classes. Durham Public Schools will use accumulated instructional hours to make up the day.

Free meal delivery on Thursday has also been canceled. Cold food meal pick-up sites that would normally serve on Thursday will be open for service on Friday, Feb. 19. Meal services will also resume Friday.

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♦ Orange County Schools

Orange County Schools announced it will also be closed on Thursday due to the storm. As a reminder, you can find the full list of closings and delays linked just above this.

♦ Wake County Schools

Wake County Schools announces that in-person instruction, school activities and athletics are canceled for Thursday, Feb. 18.

Schools will work with students to provide asynchronous instruction. This is due to the possibility of power failures and hazardous road conditions in some parts of the county. No makeup day is required. There is no live instruction on asynchronous learning days. Instead, teachers communicate assignments to students to complete on their own.

♦ NC State University

In anticipation of potential adverse weather, NC State is moving its operations to Condition 1: Reduced Operations from 10 p.m. Wednesday until 11 a.m. Thursday.

The university will remain open, but some operations will be reduced.

There will be no on-campus in-person classes on Thursday before 11 a.m. Online/remote classes will occur as previously scheduled during this time. Normal class delivery modes will resume at 11 a.m.

Only employees designated as mandatory for adverse weather purposes are required to report or remain at work while the university is in Condition 1. Other employees are expected to continue working remotely if currently doing so, or can check with supervisors regarding any other needed work arrangements.

There will be no on-campus COVID testing on Thursday before 11 a.m.

♦ UNC-Chapel Hill

No classes will be held, either in person or remotely, for UNC-Chapel Hill on Thursday.

Mandatory employees must report to work; all other employees should remain off campus, and if possible, work remotely. Employees who are unable to work should use leave, per the adverse weather policy.

♦ Duke University

All on-site classes in Durham beginning before 11:45 a.m. Thursday will be canceled or moved to online delivery, if possible. Online/remote classes will continue as scheduled.