Will Tropical Storm Nicholas become a hurricane and when could it make landfall in Texas?

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Tropical Storm Nicholas is continuing its path toward the Texas coast Monday morning, prompting local school districts to close and the community to brace for substantial rain.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 10 a.m. advisory, the storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is located 166 miles south of Corpus Christi, and is moving north northwest at 5 mph. Nicholas could bring rains of 8 to 16 inches across the coastal area.

As the storm approaches the area, here’s what we know about whether Nicholas could become a hurricane when to expect landfall.

Nicholas could become a hurricane

The National Weather Service says the Nicholas could reach hurricane status. A storm is considered a hurricane if it has sustained winds of at least 74 mph. The storm is currently has 60 mph winds.

“Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane,” National Hurricane Center senior specialist Eric Blake said.

But AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson suggested the storm will spend limited time over warm Gulf of Mexico waters and won’t reach hurricane strength.

Even if Nicholas does become a hurricane, the storm could lose power once it makes landfall and downgraded to a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Nicholas forecast to make landfall near Port Lavaca Monday

The majority of spaghetti models forecast Nicholas to move north through the Gulf and to potentially make landfall east of Corpus Christi.

CBS News Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said the storm could hit near Port Lavaca Monday night. Meteorologist Allan Huffman agreed on Twitter, forecasting the storm could make landfall near Matagorda Bay.

The National Weather Service Houston said landfall could happen Monday night, too.

The storm is forecast to result in heavy rain along the coast this week.

Storm surge warnings and watches

Nicholas has already resulted in several weather warnings and watches

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

  • Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
  • Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

  • Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
  • Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for: 

  • Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
  • San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay
  • Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass