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Hurricane season 2024: NOAA forecast is highest number of storms ever predicted
Prepare for a busy hurricane season.
NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) issued a forecast on Thursday that says there is an 85 percent chance of more named storms, more hurricanes and more major hurricanes than the average.
NOAA 2024 hurricane forecast
The forecast, for
is the greatest number ever predicted by NOAA in a May outlook.
The forecast for a busy season is in line with forecasts from North Carolina State and Colorado State university experts, who released their forecasts earlier in the spring.
Average hurricane season
In an average recent season, there have been:
Each of the forecasts anticipates for a greater number than average of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, and the NOAA forecast pushes those numbers the highest.
What is La Niña?
The forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season factor in a La Niña pattern, which means weaker easterly trade winds and below average vertical wind shear. Basically, in La Niña conditions, there is less wind to break up a tropical system as it organizes.
During a La Niña pattern, WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell says, “It’s easier for storms to form and easier for them to strengthen.”
Through the spring of 2024, the east coast will be in an El Niño period, but it is weakening.
NOAA said there is a 77 percent chance for La Niña conditions to develop later in the summer of 2024. It’s very common to have a quick transition from an El Niño to a La Niña.
“It’s not a guarantee that we will have a La Niña for the tropical season, but all signs are pointing in that direction,” WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said.
Added on top of record warm temperatures across most of the Atlantic Ocean already, with summer’s heat still to come, the conditions are right for storms to be strong and organized.
Prepare your home, family for hurricane season
Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through November. Storms can form at any time, but there are precautions the North Carolina residents – from the coast to the mountains – can take ahead of time.