Flooding possible as periods of heavy rain continue

Surface map this afternoon shows area of high pressure off the New England coast. Area of low pressure across the Tennessee Valley with stalled boundary across the viewing area.

This stalled front will remain across the area through the overnight and serve as the focal point for showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will overrun this boundary and any disturbances aloft will help to intensify any showers and thunderstorms.

With precipitable water values between 2.0-2.4 inches and a weak steering flow, localized flooding does remain a concern.

For tomorrow an upper-level feature moving across the Midwest will finally push the system across the Tennessee Valley off to the east. A warm, moist air mass will remain in place tomorrow. There will be a cold front associated with the the feature moving through the Midwest. This front will
push through the Triangle late tomorrow night.

Ahead of this front, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Once again tomorrow there is a risk for localized flooding. That threat will continue into tomorrow night until the front moves through the region.

The trend has been faster with the front through the region so for Tuesday we will cover for a morning shower especially for the eastern part of the viewing area. As some drier air filters into the region clouds will break for some afternoon sunshine.

The dry weather will be short-lived; however, as moisture will quickly return northward Wednesday in response to a deep upper-level trough progged to dig south over the Mississippi Valley. With an easterly flow in place this will keep temperatures below normal for this time of the year.

This system lifts northward on Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west with a system moving through the Ohio Valley. Another day of showers and thunderstorms across the region. High pressure builds in behind the front ushering in a drier more stable air mass for the end of the week.

Stay dry!
Steve Stewart

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