PTC 6: Tropical Storm Fred will likely form Tuesday in the Caribbean

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The disturbance could reach the far southeastern Gulf by this weekend.

NEW ORLEANS — We’re watching a tropical disturbance that has just moved into the eastern Caribbean. It will likely become Tropical Storm Fred Tuesday. As of 4 am Tuesday, it remains Potential Tropical Cyclone 6.

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone shows it staying a low-end tropical storm through the next several days. It looks like the system will encounter some dry air and interact with land, so it may stay on the weaken back to a tropical depression as it passes near the islands in the Greater Antilles.

We’ll keep watching it as it nudges west/northwest, guided by a high pressure area to its north, but at this time long range models show it curving north around Florida or in the extreme eastern Gulf and then strengthening again.

With undeveloped systems this far out, there is always lots of uncertainty, but for now, there are no imminent threats to our part of the Gulf Coast.

Of course we’ll watch closely as activity picks up this month, and we will keep you updated.

2021 Hurricane Season Outlook

The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to produce more storms than average. The reason for this is the lack of El Nino, which typically features more wind shear. We also expect warmer than average sea temperatures and an active West African Monsoon.

After a record-breaking 2020 hurricane season, we now know the Greek alphabet will no longer be used to name storms.

The World Meteorological Organization announced the Greek alphabet will not be used in the future because it “creates a distraction from the communication of hazard and storm warnings and is potentially confusing.”

There has been only one other season that used the extra set of names, and that was in 2005. The World Meteorological Organization released a new set of supplemental names that will be used if the season exhausts the standard list.

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