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It is not a threat to the Gulf Coast.
NEW ORLEANS — Tropical Storm Arthur formed Saturday night off Florida’s coast north of the Bahamas. On Sunday, its maximum sustained winds increased very slightly to 45 mph as it drifted northward.
It is forecast to move northeast and skirt near North Carolina Monday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the North Carolina coast where some heavy rain and gusty winds are likely. A trough of low pressure sweeping across the eastern US should keep the center just off the coast. By Tuesday it will veer out into the Atlantic and eventually weaken.
This system is not a threat to the Gulf Coast.
The official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1, so this is a pre-season storm and the first named storm of the year in the Atlantic.
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2020 Hurricane Season forecast to be active
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st and predictions are already being made.
Colorado State University released their first forecast and call for an above-normal season. The forecast calls for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes ( category 3 or higher). A normal season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Typically when we have an El Nino wind shear is stronger and hurricane season can be less active. The reason for this above-normal forecast is the due to the lack of El Nino expected and the possibility that La Nina develops. This could lead to weaker wind shear over areas where tropical cyclones form.
Here’s a look at the chance our area will see impacts from a hurricane this season. The chance that Louisiana will see impacts from a hurricane currently sits around 43%. That’s lower for Mississippi at 17%. The chance a major hurricane will hit somewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas is 44%. That’s up from 30% during a normal season.
Remember, it only takes one storm for it to be an active season for our area. The Gulf Coast has seen impacts during quiet seasons and no impacts during busy seasons. It’s important to have a plan regardless of the forecast.